The OCTA Research Group, a team of professors analyzing COVID-19 data in the Philippines, said in its latest report that while the Philippines and the National Capital Region has seen a decreasing trend in new cases, the country might have to consider imposing stricter quarantine measures in some areas.

The group composed of professors from the University of the Philippines, the University of Santo Tomas, and Providence College in the United States said: “Based on available data, the value of Rt (transmission rate) for the entire Philippines and in the NCR has been on a decelerating trend. But these positive trends are not irreversible and significant efforts have to be undertaken by all stakeholders to sustain,”

The group also suggested that “[t]he national government may consider reverting to a stricter quarantine classification or resort to localized lockdowns” for local government units under the following circumstances:

– If there is an increase in new cases for two consecutive weeks and

– If the daily attack rate is greater than 7% per 1,000 (equivalent to 50 new cases per week per 100k population)

– If the LGU has limited hospital capacity or hospital occupancy is already in excess of the 70% which is the critical level set by government.

Based on these qualifications, they suggested a stricter quarantine classification for Bauan, Batangas; Calbayog, Western Samar; and General Trias, Cavite.